The Washington Post recently ran a piece making the case that Europe has grandeur and America has economic abundance. It is a reasonable argument. It is also a description of a world that has been changing faster than most people expected.
I have been working with American buyers in Paris since 2011. The conversation has shifted. Five years ago, the first thing most clients mentioned was the exchange rate. Today, the first thing many of them mention is what is happening at home.
The dollar argument, honestly revisited
For several years, the strong dollar was the first thing American buyers mentioned when considering a Paris purchase. At near-parity in 2022, the arithmetic was almost irresistible: a €500,000 apartment cost roughly $500,000. Today, with the euro trading at approximately $1.16, that same calculation looks different. I will not pretend otherwise.
But here is what has also changed: the context that made dollar-denominated assets feel like the obvious default. US equity markets remain volatile. The dollar has, in fact, been softening against the euro in recent weeks, as markets price in Fed rate cuts while the ECB continues raising rates, a reminder that currency conditions are not fixed. And American political risk, the kind that affects portfolio values, regulatory environments, and long-term planning, has become a factor that serious wealth managers are no longer ignoring.
The question is no longer whether American abundance is real. It is whether it is stable, and how much of a buyer’s net worth should be concentrated in a single currency, a single market, and a single political moment.
Contact me and let’s discuss what you’re looking for.
The price picture
Paris apartment prices stand at approximately €9,560 per square metre, down from the 2022 peak of €10,800 but up dramatically from €3,500 at the turn of the millennium. Over twenty-five years, the city has nearly tripled in value per square metre, with the most desirable arrondissements performing considerably better than that average. The 2021 to 2022 peak was, in retrospect, exceptional: post-pandemic demand, rock-bottom interest rates, and a briefly euphoric market psychology combined in a way that was never going to be permanent.
|
Indicator
|
Value
|
Source
|
|---|---|---|
|
EUR/USD rate
|
$1.16
|
September 2026
|
|
USD vs EUR trend
|
Softening
|
Recent weeks, Sept 2026
|
|
French GDP growth forecast
|
1.0%
|
BNP Paribas, April 2026
|
|
French public deficit target
|
5% of GDP
|
On track, 2026
|
|
Paris apartment price
|
€9,560/m²
|
Notaires du Grand Paris, Q1 2026
|
The sellers who bought at peak 2022 prices are not moving. The ones who bought ten years ago are negotiating. That gap is where the opportunities are.
The French case, made plainly
France is not the most exciting economy in the world. It does not pretend to be. What it offers is something more useful for a certain kind of investor: predictability, institutional stability, and a track record of doing what it says it will do.
BNP Paribas Economic Research’s April 2026 analysis describes French GDP growth as relatively robust since the second quarter of 2025, with momentum expected to continue, driven by public investment in defense, European rearmament programs, and private investment in artificial intelligence. The government’s deficit-reduction program, targeting 5% of GDP in 2026, is on track. These are not exceptional numbers. They are solid ones. In the current global environment, solid is underrated.
More relevant to a property buyer: France’s structural supply constraints are unchanged. Paris cannot meaningfully expand its footprint. The city’s twenty arrondissements represent a finite and legally protected stock of residential real estate. That scarcity, combined with sustained international demand, is the durable foundation beneath the city’s price history. It has not changed. It will not change.
Why some of my clients pay cash and why that is not a disadvantage
Some of my clients purchase with cash. In a Parisian market where sellers in desirable arrondissements have little patience for financing contingencies, that is a genuine edge: no approval process, no contingencies, faster closing. I have watched buyers lose properties to weaker offers simply because the winning bid came without a financing clause. Paying cash is not the only way to compete but it is one strong way to compete.
For clients who prefer to finance, the numbers currently favor borrowing. French mortgage rates are hovering around 3.4–3.5% on a 20-year term, roughly half of what the same borrower would pay in the US right now, where 30-year rates sit near 6.8%. Americans can and do secure French financing, though the process is different from what they are used to: banks weigh debt-to-income ratios strictly, life insurance requirements can limit eligibility past a certain age, and non-salaried income (pensions, investments, self-employment) is scrutinized more closely than a US lender might. None of this makes financing impossible, but it does make a good broker essential.
Whether a client pays cash or borrows, the principle is the same: financing readiness is not a formality, it’s a competitive weapon. Confirming borrowing capacity before beginning the search makes a material difference in how strong an offer looks to a seller. In a city where the gap between the first and second offer can be a matter of days, being ready is the work.
The rate question
A Paris apartment is not a yield play. Rental regulations in France are stringent. Short-term rental restrictions have tightened considerably in recent years, particularly in Paris, where platforms like Airbnb face meaningful regulatory limits. Gross yields for those who choose to let typically run between 2.5% and 3.5%. Anyone purchasing primarily for income should probably reconsider.
|
Asset type
|
Typical gross yield
|
Euro-denominated
|
Correlated to S&P 500
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Paris apartment (rental)
|
2.5% to 3.5%
|
Yes
|
No
|
|
US equities
|
Variable
|
No
|
Yes
|
|
US Treasury bonds
|
Variable
|
No
|
Moderate
|
What a Paris property does offer is genuine diversification: a hard asset denominated in euros, in one of the world’s most supply-constrained cities, structurally uncorrelated to the S&P 500. It does not move with interest rate announcements or earnings seasons. And if its owner spends meaningful time in Paris, which is after all the lifestyle point, it functions as a partial hedge against euro-denominated living costs.
The correction, and what it means right now
Paris apartment prices stand at roughly €9,560 per square metre, down from their 2022 peak of approximately €10,800. The correction, driven by rising interest rates and post-pandemic demand normalisation, has been orderly rather than severe: a 12 to 15% pullback from an exceptional peak, returning to pricing levels that most analysts describe as rational.
For buyers who were priced out at the peak or simply not yet ready, this represents a concrete and time-limited window. Some analysts point to early signals from signed preliminary contracts suggesting prices may begin to move upward in Q3 2026. The window is not closed. It is narrowing.
The Washington Post’s point about European grandeur is well-taken. But grandeur and history, as anyone who has held an asset in Paris for twenty years will attest, has a way of appreciating. The city’s residential real estate has roughly tripled in value per square metre since the turn of the millennium. That is not Parisian lifestyle as compensation for economic underperformance. That is lifestyle with a balance sheet.
Paris at €9,500 per square metre is still Paris. And Paris, for buyers who understand what they are acquiring and have the right guidance to acquire it, has a long memory.
Sources
Sources: BNP Paribas Economic Research, April 2026. ECB and Trading Economics, June 2026. Notaires du Grand Paris, Q1 2026.
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